Climate change will lead to an increase in both the duration and frequency of heat waves. Heat waves affect public health by causing heat related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke. If people are not prepared these illnesses can lead to death. Heat has been the leading cause of death among natural disasters in the United States since 1988, however, it is also the most well understood, measurable, and preventable.[1] In Boston the annual heat related deaths are currently estimated to be between 56 and 96 for an average summer.[2] This is predicted to increase to 1,340 by the 2090s.[3] Since Cambridge is located next to Boston a similar increase should be expected and actions should be taken to prevent such a drastic increase.
One way to help reduce the risks associated with heat waves is a heatwave response plan. An effective heatwave response plan must include prediction and notification of extreme heat events, public education efforts for protection from heat and symptoms of heat stress, identification of vulnerable groups, response preparation and annual review of the plan. It is important that it is a comprehensive plan between all organizations (including police and fire departments, emergency medical services, non-profit agencies that assist vulnerable populations, and public health departments) involved, so involved parties know what their responsibilities are when an emergency happens.
Heatwave response plans have previously been successful in many cities including Philadelphia, Toronto and Phoenix. These cities’ plans are used as examples in the Excessive Heat Events Guidebook written by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to help other cities create or improve their own heatwave response plans.[4] Since Philadelphia and Cambridge have similar climates, Cambridge should look to Philadelphia’s plan as an example. After a severe heat wave in 1993 Philadelphia began creating a heat wave response plan. As a result of this plan a study of heat wave mortality rates in Philadelphia found that a total of 117 lives were saved between 1995 and 1998.[2] While in use the Philadelphia heat wave response plan costs about $10,000 a day.[2] The majority of this cost comes from paying more medical staff. However, saving human lives makes this cost worthwhile.
Cambridge has a pre-existing heat wave response plan, but it can be improved to be more specific and adapt to rising temperatures. The information learned from Cambridge’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment can be used to help change the plan.[1] The plan already includes many important aspects such as cooling centers that provide citizens access to air conditioning during heat waves, public outreach initiatives, a heat emergency hotline, and a post season evaluation. The plan also assigns responsibilities to different departments including the Cambridge Public Health Department, the fire and emergency medical services, the Council on Aging and the Cambridge Police Department.
Potential improvements include using social media and texting services to provide heat warnings and advice for what to do to avoid heat stress. Cambridge is currently using a CodeRED system to notify subscribers of emergencies related to snow or evacuations. Subscribers can choose to be notified through text, email or call. This could be expanded to include heat emergencies.
Also it is important that everyone has access to air conditioning and methods to cool themselves. A survey of the Boston metropolitan area, which includes Cambridge, estimates that 18% of households are without any type of air conditioning.[2] While many homes in Cambridge do not have air conditioning, it is not a sustainable solution for Cambridge to purchase air conditioners for every resident. Air conditioners contribute to carbon dioxide emissions and make high temperatures worse by emitting heat into outdoor air. Therefore there must be public access to places with air conditioning. Cambridge’s plan includes cooling centers, but there could be easier access to a list of where cooling centers are located and their hours. On the City of Cambridge’s website the only methods currently listed to find out where cooling centers are located are to make a phone call or check with local authorities.[5] If individuals are well aware of the availability of cooling centers they are more likely to use them.[4] Cambridge could also assist high-risk people with purchasing air conditioning, since this is a smaller portion of the population who could greatly benefit from easy access to air conditioning. Cambridge currently provides assistance to elderly who need help purchasing a fan. However, according to the Environmental Protection Agency fans are no longer effective when the heat index is over 99℉, because the increased circulation of hot air and increased speed of sweat evaporation can increase heat stress.[4] Therefore, since the average heat index is predicted to be between 100℉ and 110℉ by the 2070s fans are going to stop being effective cooling methods during the hottest days of the summer.[1] Another method of cooling is open air misting systems. These could be installed in major outdoor public areas to be used during heat waves.
Figure 1: Open air mist generator
Source: Preparing for Heat Waves in Boston[2]
Additionally, Cambridge should be prepared for a blackout during a heat emergency. The likelihood of blackouts will increase with rising temperatures due to strain on energy resources from increased demand for air conditioning and lower productivity of power plants. A blackout will cause an increase in heat stress because without reliable backup energy systems buildings that previously had air conditioning will no longer have it. This leads to prolonged exposure to heat for more people. If cooling centers don’t have air conditioning they are no longer effective. Cambridge should look into backup systems and cooling buses to be prepared. A cooling bus is an air conditioned bus that can provide people relief from the heat.
Specifically looking at MIT, MIT has a large percentage of international grad students. As of 2017, 42% of MIT graduate students are international[6], and international graduate students tend to experience higher levels of isolation[7]. Being socially isolated is one of the greatest risk factors for heat-related deaths[8], so MIT should look into whether this is a problem at MIT. If international grad students are socially isolated at MIT then MIT should be aware of this in a disaster situation and make sure the graduate student population is aware of the resources Cambridge provides during a heat emergency. In addition, the majority of MIT’s undergraduate dorms are not equipped with air conditioning. As temperatures rise it is important that air conditioning is added, but in the meantime MIT should make sure students are aware of the health risk associated with heat and how to prevent them.
Although climate change will make heat waves worse, Cambridge can significantly reduce the risks associated with heat waves by improving its heat wave response plan. Increasing awareness of heat related illnesses and the resources available during heat waves combined with having well planned response procedures for heat waves will help save lives.
By Sheila Kennedy-Moore
References
- Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. (2015, November). Retrieved from http://www.cambridgema.gov/CDD/Projects/Climate/~/media/307B044E0EC5492BB92B2D8FA003ED25.ashx
- Adler, M., Harris, S., Krey, M., Plocinski, L., & Rebecchi, J. (2010). Preparing for Heat Waves in Boston: A Cool Way to Attack Global Warming. Retrieved from https://www.cityofboston.gov/
- The Natural Resources Defense Council. (2017, June 29). “Killer Summer Heat” Report: 14,000 Americans Could Die Annually by Mid-Century Without Paris Climate Pact Protections. Retrieved from https://www.nrdc.org/media/2017/170629-0
- United States Environmental Protection Agency (2006). Excessive Heat Events Guidebook. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-03/documents/eheguide_final.pdf
- City of Cambridge. (2017). Tips for Extreme Heat Days. Retrieved from https://www.cambridgema.gov/news/2016/08/extremeheatinformation
- About ISO. (2017, October 6). Retrieved from http://web.mit.edu/iso/stats_17-18/general.shtml
- Erichsen, E.A. & Bolliger, D.U. Education Tech Research Dev (2011) 59: 309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11423-010-9161-6
- Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2016. Preparing for Extreme Heat. Retrieved from https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/117016